With the end of the season, I decided to explore what colour trends can be observed in the short and free dances, both from senior teams (on the left) and junior ones (on the right). Includes the couples present at the U. S. International Figure Skating Classic, Autumn Classic, Nebelhorn Trophy, Onderj Nepela and Finlandia Trophy, Grand Prix Events, U.S. Nationals, Canadian Nationals, Russian Nationals, European Championships, Four Continents and World Championships in the case of the senior couples. For junior teams, it includes the Grand Prix Series, U.S. Nationals, Canadian Nationals, Russian Nationals and the World Junior Championships. The reported colours correspond to the one the woman of the partnership wore, in the last version of the costumes presented. Concerning the senior teams, black was the choice to make in the short dance, followed by blue and red (42%, 22% and 18%, respectively). The choice of black turned out to be quite relevant, not only because most teams that chose hip hop wore it, but also because teams doing swing also chose it (to mind comes Bobrova and Soloviev, for instance). One thing to note through this analysis, though, is that the preferences are just the dominant colours of the costumes; that is, a costume can be black and have other colours like red or green, for instance, and it will show up classified as black as it is the dominant colour. Therefore, this does not mean that 42% of the costumes were exclusively black (they may have had other colours, like Tessa Virtue’s which shows up as black in these statistics). Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir at the 2017 World Figure Skating Championships; Photo Source: Zimbio Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev at the 2016 Grand Prix Final; Photo Source: @fs_evolution If we look at the choices made by the junior couples, black is once again the main choice (44%). And yet again, it is followed by blue (19%) and red (11%). In their case however, purple has a slightly higher importance than in seniors, and white (which was only used by 1% of the senior teams) shows up as the choice of 7% of the couples. Lorraine McNamara and Quinn Carpenter at the 2017 U.S. Nationals; Photo Source: Two for the Ice Christina Carreira and Anthony Ponomarenko at the 2017 U.S. Nationals; Photo Source: Two for the Ice Moving on to the free dance, Black, Red and Blue are tied at the top of the choices of senior teams with 21%. Other colours showed up as choices, with purple and rose/pink with 12% each. However, the same is not observed in junior couples, where red making a statement, being used by 28% of the girls. Black and Blue follow with 19% and 16%, respectively. Hence, these three colours are chosen by around 60% of the teams in both junior and senior ranks. Curiously, in juniors purple and rose/pink emerge also as the colours that are most used when excluding the favourite three aforementioned. The main difference between ranks comes from the others component. Firstly, in juniors it amount to 15% whereas in seniors it is only 4%. This comes from the fact that while seniors have three other colours in this component (Brown, Green and Yellow), juniors have six (Brown, Yellow, Silver, Grey, Orange and Gold). Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron at the 2017 World Figure Skating Championships; Photo Source: Zimbio Laurence Fournier-Beaudry and Nikolaj Sorensen at the 2017 European Figure Skating Championships; Photo Source: Getty Images Rachel Parsons and Michael Parsons at the 2017 U.S. Nationals; Photo Source: Two for the Ice Anastasia Shpilevaya and Grigory Smirnov at the 2017 World Junior Championships; Photo Source: Getty Images Can we expect that these trends are verified next season? On what concerns the short dance, I expect black not to have such an expressive amount of teams picking it, since it will be danced to latin rhythms. Nonetheless, it will be present. Actually, the last time the rhumba pattern was chosen I was surprised that a number of themes decided on black dresses. In my view, teams should try to depart from that since black was heavily used this season and teams surely do not was to look the same year after year. Regarding the free dance and the fact that it is the Olympic season, I am expecting blue, black and red to continue their dominance, as teams will likely not take colour risks. It will also be interesting to see if purple and rose/pink rise in percentage or not. After all, in 2016 one of the colour of the year from Pantone was the rose quartz, which was seen in figure skating (the tone of Tessa Virtue’s Free Dance dress, as well as Meagan Duhamel’s Free Program dress, among others). All in all, I expect a wide range of colours in the short dance for next season and a distribution of colours for the free dance identical to the one observed this year. Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir at the 2017 World Figure Skating Championships; Photo Source: Zimbio Obs: In this analysis, purple includes violet and lilac; orange includes peach.
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The most important competition of the season took place in Helsinki between March 29th and April 2nd. While the podium may have ended up as most people predicted, as well as the teams present in the top ten, there was a great deal of unpredictability in how these results came about. All in all, it was quite an exciting event. Here are the results: The most important competition of the year, the World Championships, begin on the 29th. However, the short dance takes place on the 31st of March, with the free dance happening on the 1st of April. Predictions of this event where extremely hard to come up with, since the field is deep and anything can happen. Virtue and Moir are chasing their 3rd World Title, but so are Papadakis and Cizeron. Many medalists are present, like Maia and Alex Shibutani, Madison Chock and Evan Bates, Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje or even the 2014 World Champs Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte. Here are my predictions:
Other couples to watch:
There are a couple of other couples I will be keeping an eye on. Starting with Guginard & Fabbri and Tobias & Tkachenko who may challenge the top 10. Also, I am extremely curious to see how well will the Spanish team of Olivia Smart and Adria Diaz place. Moreover, I really like the programs of Laurence Fournier Beaudry and Nikolaj Sorensen of Denmark, particularly their short dance. The Chinese team of Shiyue Wang & Xinyu Liu is another one to keep an eye on, and so is the Korean team of Yura Min and Alexander Gamelin. The second French team of Marie-Jade Lauriault and Romain Le Gac is another one to watch: they have an amazing skating quality. Additionally, the Turkish team of Alisa Agafonova & Alper Ucar has been having great results this season. Lastly, I have really liked the British team ever since the Lombardia Trophy, so I will be watching Lilah Fear and Lewis Gibson. The World Championships are right around the corner, so I decided to compile the median results that some of the most relevant teams on the field have achieved this season. Why the median and not the average? Because the median is less sensitive to outliers (either a really high or low score), being a better measure of what the couples may earn in PCS. On what concerns the short dance, no surprises occur in the top 3 teams. However, the most striking event is that Chock and Bates show up only in 7th place in PCS, with Hubbell and Donohue a point behind them. Also, Gilles and Poirier are placed below Stepanova/Bukin. This is somewhat enlightning to what may happen, since these values where obtained as the median of the most relevant competitions these teams entered (Grand Prix Events, Final, Europeans and/or Four Continents). However, since nothing is complete without the techinal component, all may change depending on the base values these teams are able to achieve. Nevertheless, a question I find relevant is what would happen is all teams achieve the same levels? Who will have the largest TES? Putting it differently, which team is receiving more GOE's by the technical pannel? For that, I came up with a simple formula: (TES-Base Value)/(Base Value). Why this and not simply looking at the amount of GOE? Well, because I would be comparing teams with different base values which may be the source of lower GOE's. Therefore, this formula is the "growth rate" that the panel of judges implements over the base value, being comparable across teams (and time, but that analysis I will save for another day). So here are the results from the median "GOE factor" that the couples achieved in the aforementioned competitions, along with the average: Here, there are surprises. The judges are giving a higher growth rate to Papadakis and Cizeron, followed by the Shibutanis and Virtue and Moir in the short dance. Moreover, Chock and Bates show up in 7th again and Hubbell/Donohue in 10th! And what to say about Gilles and Poirier in 12th... In this case, there is a somewhat relevant difference between the median and the average. Just look at Weaver and Poje, for instance. Hence, if things go smoothly, we may have the outcome of the first column. Let's look at the Free Dance statistics: On what PCS are concerned, there isn't a huge surprise. Maybe the placement of Weaver and Poje vs Chock and Bates, but that ordering is actually a plausible one to happen. What about GOE's? In the Free Dance case, it is not as surprising as in the short. However, Chock and Bates show up in 8th, which together with the sixth place in PCS may be evidence that things may not be in their favour this season. Another thing to notice is that here, Gilles and Poirier are aheah of Weaver and Poje. I am not going to take many conclusions regarding this (even though it did help me decide on my prediction of who will be in the top ten. The ordering still remains unknown. However, this may shed light on any surprising results that may take place.
In the deepest field of ice dance of a couple of years, anything can happen. And the data is showing us just that. The European Championships took place between the 25th and the 29th of January. While the winners of the Ice Dance event were the ones expected, it did not come as easily as one might have thought. The podium was easy to guess, even though the distinction between silver and bronze was minimal.
Some surprises were in store for the Russian teams, with the second and third places at Russian Nationals having lower results than expected. For Israel, however, this championships turned out to be quite successful. The results are presented below: The European Championships started yesterday with the ladies and pairs short programs. Today, the dance event begins with the short dance. Hence, let’s take a look at the most prominent couples in this competition. 1st: Being two times European and world champions, Gabriella and Guillaume are the front runners to get the gold medal. This season, they have only lost to Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir of Canada, which are not present here. In fact, their main competitors are North American teams, which causes little doubt that they will be the winners, being, in my opinion, light years ahead of any of the other partnerships in this competition. However, it will be interesting to see what changes did they make to both their short and free dances, since they are playing catch-up to the Canadian team. The scores they get here will have to make a statement that they will be going to worlds to win, so great performances from them are to be expected. 2nd: The World Champions of 2014 did not have a great start of the season, mainly because they encountered Virtue/Moir and Chock/Bates in Skate Canada and both Virtue/Moir and Papadakis/Cizeron in the NHK Trophy, missing the grand prix final. However, they had enough time to improve both dances. Moreover, their free dance is endearing, receiving a great deal of support from the audience. They will be battling the silver alongside Bobrova/Soloviev. The reason I put they first is because, even if they fall behind in the short dance, I’m expecting them to move ahead in the free dance. 3rd: This team won the Russian Nationals again, being the first in line to place well at Worlds. As a result, they will want to score higher than their best achieved at the Rostelecom Cup this season. However, falling short of this in the Grand Prix Final may pose a question mark as to how they will do here. Having improved a lot since the beginning of the season, they are going to make it difficult for the Italian team to get the silver. 4th: Another team with great progress this season, Stepanova/Bukin will likely get the fourth place here. This is a team to keep an eye on. After all, they are the second Russian team and they have been getting better and better scores. They still have a lot to improve, but the speed with which they perform each element is quite impressive, aiming at getting higher grades of execution. 5th: This is a risky prediction, putting them in front of Sinitsina and Katsalapov. Nevertheless, the latter got the place here in a non-incontestable way. If you ask me, Ilinykh/Zhiganshin would likely do better here. This Italian team has been proving its value, with a fantastic free dance last season and great programs this season, showing how versatile they are. If they manage to get great levels in their elements, they will likely end up in fifth. 6th: Another team that got good results this season, Tobias and Tkachenko have two very different programs that are worth watching. Even though the free dance is set to the same tune as Guignard and Fabbri, they are quite different. The Italians got a better result at Skate America, and I am expecting the same to happen here. 7th: Having a not so great season, barely making it to this year’s Europeans, this Russian team wants to prove that the federation should send them to World instead of Stepanova/Bukin. Even though that seems highly unlikely, we never know. Moreover, they want to prove they are a force of Russian ice dance, proving the choice of sending them and not Ilinykh/Zhiganshin to be the right one. While Sinitsina is quite good in the short dance, having surprising me with a great midnight blues, the free dance did not have, until now, the perfection necessary to get solid results. Let’s see how much better did they become since Nationals. 8th: This Polish team has been impressing me throughout the season. While I love the Danish team better, I think the Polish will be ahead. But, who knows, I might be surprised. 9th: As much as I want them to place higher, they will have to nail their levels in the short dance, as they did in the Autumn Classic, and that they have not been able to repeat since. That being said, it is a quite entertaining and lovely short dance and they have a fantastic free dance. If they manage to get their levels, who knows, maybe they place ahead of Sinitsina/Katsalapov (a little delusional, I know). 10th: This will likely not happen, but I decided to risk it and predict that the second French team in the Nationals will close the top ten. Why? I really like their skating quality and they have been showing promise. If they manage to connect more with each other during their programs, they may end up higher than expected. So, I guess placing them here is not that farfetched as it may seem. They actually may be close to this placement. Other teams to watch:The Grand Prix Final took place in Marseille, France, between the 8th and 11th of December, marking the end of the first half of the season. Relevant names like Weaver/Poje and Cappellini/Lanotte did not make the top six, so making it was already a huge accomplishment for couples like Hubbell/Donohue and Bobrova/Soloviev. However, everyone was in it to get the best placement possible, building momentum for the upcoming competitions.
Predictions ranged from Canadians Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir and French Gabriella Papadakis/Guillaume Cizeron for the gold, with the two American teams of Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani and Madison Chock/Evan Bates to be capable of challenging these two teams if they faltered. The results were the following: Between the 25th and 27th of November, the last event of the Grand Prix Series, the NHK Trophy, took place in Sapporo, Japan. This was a highly anticipated event by ice dance fans, as it would be the first time the World Champions Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron, of France, would face the reigning Olympic Silver Medalists Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, of Canada. The outcome of this competition will likely shape the rest of the season, so much attention had been given to it. Furthermore, Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte, of Italy, the 2014 World Champions, were present to try and shake things up. The final outcome was the following: 4. Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker (USA) – Total of 169.75 points
5. Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov (Russia) – Total of 169.62 points 6. Marie-Jade Lauriault/Romain Le Gac (France) – Total of 149.99 points 7. Natalia Kaliszek/Maksym Spodyriev (Poland) – Total of 147.93 points 8. Anastasia Cannuscio/Colin McManus (USA) – Total of 139.47 points 9. Emi Hirai/Marien De La Asuncion (Japan) – Total of 120.35 points Kana Muramoto and Chris Reed (Japan) withdrew from the competition. Between the 10th and 13th of November, all eyes were in France for the Trophee de France. In this event, the reigning European and World Champions Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron were performing their programs internationally for the first time (they competed at the French Masters but due to the low quality of the videos that surfaced after the competition, I am considering this to be the first time most people are going to see them). While they were expected to win the gold, the podium was not fully predetermined at the start, with three other teams aiming at achieving the best place possible: Canadians Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier (that after a great performance at Skate Canada, were expected to win silver), Americans Madison Hubbell and Zachary Donohue and Russians Elena Ilinykh and Ruslan Zhiganshin. Here is the outcome of the competition: 4. Elena Ilinykh/Ruslan Zhiganshin (Russia) – Total of 167.4 points
5. Isabella Tobias/Ilia Tkachenko (Israel) – Total of 158.86 points 6. Marie-Jade Lauriault/Romain Le Gac (France) – Total of 150.07 points 7. Alexandra Nazarova/Maxim Nikitin (Ukraine) – Total of 145.39 points 8. Cortney Mansour/Michal Ceska (Czech Republic) – Total of 140.92 points 9. Lorenza Alessandrini/Pierre Souquet (France) – Total of 130.12 points 10. Viktoria Kavaliova/Yurii Bieliaiev (Belarus) – Total of 115.04 points |
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