The most important competition of the year, the World Championships, begin on the 29th. However, the short dance takes place on the 31st of March, with the free dance happening on the 1st of April. Predictions of this event where extremely hard to come up with, since the field is deep and anything can happen. Virtue and Moir are chasing their 3rd World Title, but so are Papadakis and Cizeron. Many medalists are present, like Maia and Alex Shibutani, Madison Chock and Evan Bates, Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje or even the 2014 World Champs Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte. Here are my predictions:
Other couples to watch:
There are a couple of other couples I will be keeping an eye on. Starting with Guginard & Fabbri and Tobias & Tkachenko who may challenge the top 10. Also, I am extremely curious to see how well will the Spanish team of Olivia Smart and Adria Diaz place. Moreover, I really like the programs of Laurence Fournier Beaudry and Nikolaj Sorensen of Denmark, particularly their short dance. The Chinese team of Shiyue Wang & Xinyu Liu is another one to keep an eye on, and so is the Korean team of Yura Min and Alexander Gamelin. The second French team of Marie-Jade Lauriault and Romain Le Gac is another one to watch: they have an amazing skating quality. Additionally, the Turkish team of Alisa Agafonova & Alper Ucar has been having great results this season. Lastly, I have really liked the British team ever since the Lombardia Trophy, so I will be watching Lilah Fear and Lewis Gibson.
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This week Four Continents are taking place in South Korea, in the rink that will hold the Olympic Winter Games next year. The dance event is a good proxy to what will happen at worlds, because, with the exception of Papadakis/Cizeron, the top teams are going to be present. Sixteen teams from six countries (US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia and China) will be competing. My predictions may not turn out true as most teams could medal with the exception that the first place is Virtue and Moir’s to lose. 1st: Having won both their Grand Prix assignments (Skate Canada and NHK), the Grand Prix Final and Canadian nationals after two years without competing, Virtue and Moir have surpassed their personal bests in both programs and hold the world record in the short dance. After this successful start of the season, they are being considered the team that will win Worlds. Here they will likely get the gold medal, without much competition from the other phenomenal teams competing here. They are just in a league of their own. If they don’t lose levels, they will be going at full speed ahead to Worlds. 2nd: Now, this was a big risk, but like Cappellini and Lanotte and European Championships, Weaver and Poje did not make it to the Grand Prix Final. I am expecting them to be fully prepared and ready. Putting them ahead of Maia and Alex Shibutani or even Madison Chock and Evan Bates was risky. The reason I am doing so is because I like both their programs more than the ones of the American teams. Moreover, if there is any team that I believe has a huge potential to win, but haven’t fully delivered yet at Worlds are these two. Unlike last season, I predict the Four Continents will not be the beginning of their worst results of the season, but rather the place where they will build the momentum going into Worlds. 3rd: The bronze medal was also a risk that I am taking, but I believe Chock and Bates have the ability to be ahead of Maia and Alex Shibutani. Actually, they won the free dance at the US Nationals and, in my view, they should have won also the short and overall (I guess I am just not fond of their short; still not over the fact that they are “ruining” Frank Sinatra for me). There is not a defined hierarchy in American ice dance and I expect the placements to change. At Skate Canada, Madison and Evan did amazing and I am expecting them to come back to that level. At the Grand Prix Final they were unfortunate at the short dance and they finished below Hubbell and Donohue. Here, I believe they will redeem themselves and take the bronze from the Shibutanis. 4th: Maia and Alex will have the fourth place due to my risky predictions so far. They have not gotten a great response to their short dance internationally with the exception of the Grand Prix Final (I still think the score they got for it there was a bit questionable, but I am biased because they are not my favorite team on the scene). Also, their free dance has not, so far, made the statement of being much better than the one of Chock/Bates or even the one of Hubbell/Donohue. I am just not putting them further down (in 5th) because they have great skating skills. However, I don’t think they nailed the choice of programs this season and I think that will cost them in the remainder of it. 5th: Madison and Zach are one of my favorite teams. I find their short dance to be fun and energetic and they were the only team to nail all the levels of that dance at US Nationals and they should have gotten credit for that even though people tended to dismiss it. I think they are being underrated. And so is their absolutely lovely free dance. I am waiting for them to performed it perfectly (they were great at Trophee de France and I am hoping for a performance like that). I would have loved to place them higher but I don’t think it will happen. I am hoping them make a statement here so that judges start perceiving them as a force to be reckoned with so that they have an even better result at Worlds. Last season they did not get enough points for their amazing short dance, so I think it is about time they are rewarded for the great improvement they have been making. 6th: Piper and Paul having been improving tremendously, particularly from last season to this season. They can challenge some of the teams above and evidence of that is how close their placement was of Weaver and Poje at the Canadian Nationals and how well they performed at Skate Canada. They have new personal bests set early in the season and had enough time to polish everything. Still, this is a tough field (basically the one they are going to encounter at Worlds). I am not excluding the possibility, though, that this team is the one who can surprise everyone at this event. 7th: From this team forward, my placements were mostly based on the personal best scores the remaining teams have achieved so far. Min/Gamelin are neck and neck with Muramoto/Reed. Still, from what I remember (I watched the programs of these teams long ago), I was impressed with Min and Gamelin so I am expecting them to edge out the Japanese team in this competition, keeping in mind that they are also skating at home. 8th: Muramoto and Reed are one of the best teams present (when you exclude the ones from Canada and the US). Accordingly, I am placing them on the top 10. Comparatively to last year, I am predicting they will fall one place because of the rise of the Korean team. 9th: The best team, in my opinion, from China, Wang and Liu will get the ninth place just like the previous year. They have done well at both their Grand Prix assignments and are showing great potential. Can’t wait to see how they have improved since Cup of China. 10th: Closing the top ten, Korea’s second team Lee and Kam. I have not seen them yet but their scores from Open d’Andorra were not that bad and I guess the coaching team they work with based my decision of placing them here (yes, they are training in Montreal with Dubreuil, Lauzon and company which also coach Virtue/Moir, Hubbell/Donohue, Papadakis/Cizeron, and the list goes on and on). All in all, I think this is going to be a team that I would want to watch and that is the reason why I believe they will be tenth. The other teams present are the three Australian couples Matilda Friend/William Badaoui, Kimberley Hew-Low/Timothy McKernan and Adele Morrison/Demid Rokachev, two Chinese partnerships Hong Chen/Yan Zhao and Linshu Song/Zhuoming Sun and one Japanese team Emi Hirai/Marien de la Asuncion. The best Australian team in terms of international scores is Hew-Low/McKernan and I am really hoping they do well. However, Friend/Badaoui are the national champions, so it will also be an interesting competition to see which Australian team will be the best here. It is nice to have three Australian couples in this competition and to see that ice dance in this country is developing successfully.
The European Championships started yesterday with the ladies and pairs short programs. Today, the dance event begins with the short dance. Hence, let’s take a look at the most prominent couples in this competition. 1st: Being two times European and world champions, Gabriella and Guillaume are the front runners to get the gold medal. This season, they have only lost to Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir of Canada, which are not present here. In fact, their main competitors are North American teams, which causes little doubt that they will be the winners, being, in my opinion, light years ahead of any of the other partnerships in this competition. However, it will be interesting to see what changes did they make to both their short and free dances, since they are playing catch-up to the Canadian team. The scores they get here will have to make a statement that they will be going to worlds to win, so great performances from them are to be expected. 2nd: The World Champions of 2014 did not have a great start of the season, mainly because they encountered Virtue/Moir and Chock/Bates in Skate Canada and both Virtue/Moir and Papadakis/Cizeron in the NHK Trophy, missing the grand prix final. However, they had enough time to improve both dances. Moreover, their free dance is endearing, receiving a great deal of support from the audience. They will be battling the silver alongside Bobrova/Soloviev. The reason I put they first is because, even if they fall behind in the short dance, I’m expecting them to move ahead in the free dance. 3rd: This team won the Russian Nationals again, being the first in line to place well at Worlds. As a result, they will want to score higher than their best achieved at the Rostelecom Cup this season. However, falling short of this in the Grand Prix Final may pose a question mark as to how they will do here. Having improved a lot since the beginning of the season, they are going to make it difficult for the Italian team to get the silver. 4th: Another team with great progress this season, Stepanova/Bukin will likely get the fourth place here. This is a team to keep an eye on. After all, they are the second Russian team and they have been getting better and better scores. They still have a lot to improve, but the speed with which they perform each element is quite impressive, aiming at getting higher grades of execution. 5th: This is a risky prediction, putting them in front of Sinitsina and Katsalapov. Nevertheless, the latter got the place here in a non-incontestable way. If you ask me, Ilinykh/Zhiganshin would likely do better here. This Italian team has been proving its value, with a fantastic free dance last season and great programs this season, showing how versatile they are. If they manage to get great levels in their elements, they will likely end up in fifth. 6th: Another team that got good results this season, Tobias and Tkachenko have two very different programs that are worth watching. Even though the free dance is set to the same tune as Guignard and Fabbri, they are quite different. The Italians got a better result at Skate America, and I am expecting the same to happen here. 7th: Having a not so great season, barely making it to this year’s Europeans, this Russian team wants to prove that the federation should send them to World instead of Stepanova/Bukin. Even though that seems highly unlikely, we never know. Moreover, they want to prove they are a force of Russian ice dance, proving the choice of sending them and not Ilinykh/Zhiganshin to be the right one. While Sinitsina is quite good in the short dance, having surprising me with a great midnight blues, the free dance did not have, until now, the perfection necessary to get solid results. Let’s see how much better did they become since Nationals. 8th: This Polish team has been impressing me throughout the season. While I love the Danish team better, I think the Polish will be ahead. But, who knows, I might be surprised. 9th: As much as I want them to place higher, they will have to nail their levels in the short dance, as they did in the Autumn Classic, and that they have not been able to repeat since. That being said, it is a quite entertaining and lovely short dance and they have a fantastic free dance. If they manage to get their levels, who knows, maybe they place ahead of Sinitsina/Katsalapov (a little delusional, I know). 10th: This will likely not happen, but I decided to risk it and predict that the second French team in the Nationals will close the top ten. Why? I really like their skating quality and they have been showing promise. If they manage to connect more with each other during their programs, they may end up higher than expected. So, I guess placing them here is not that farfetched as it may seem. They actually may be close to this placement. Other teams to watch: |
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